Papers

Peer-reviewed Publications:

This paper studies the marital fertility of five Chinese lineages since the seventeenth century, mainly in Qing (1644-1911) China. The results demonstrate a unique pattern of Chinese marital fertility by exploiting new genealogical data and studying more than 50,000 individuals from five lineages. Contrary to the conventional wisdom on Chinese fertility, the marital fertility rates in the period were moderate, and lower than those of Northwest Europe in certain periods. On the other hand, in line with the classic ideas, this paper finds no clear indication of two fertility controls within marriages, parity-dependent early stopping and parity-dependent longer birth spacing. The results suggest marital fertility in imperial China was a unique combination of moderate rates with no deliberate limitations.
Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, Volume 63, Issue 2, pp. 200-224 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1111/aehr.12269.
Awarded the 2023 Sir Timothy Coghlan Prize.

This study uses the genealogical records of 36,456 men from six Chinese lineages to test one of the fundamental assumptions of the Malthusian model. Did higher living standards result in increased reproduction? An empirical investigation of China between 1350 and 1920 finds a positive relationship between social status and net reproduction. Degree and office holders, or the literati produced greater than twice as many surviving sons as non-degree holders. The analysis explores the impact of social status on both the intensive and extensive margins of fertility—namely, reduction in child mortality and better access to marriages. The high income and strong kin network of the literati greatly contributed to their reproductive success.
Journal of Population Economics, Volume 36, pp. 2025–2070, (2023), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00960-2

The Communist Party of China (CPC) achieved a series of military successes in revolutionary wars. Based on new county-level panel datasets from China, this study uses the shocks brought about by a civil and foreign war to test the impact of Confucianism on the war mobilization capacity of the CPC. We find that, during the civil war, Confucianism did not significantly affect CPC’s war mobilization; however, during the foreign war, it significantly improved CPC’s capacity to mobilize people. This demonstrates the differentiated effects of Confucianism by war type through three different mechanisms: “loyalty,” “just war,” and “patriotism.” Our findings shed light on the role of native cultural norms in collective action.
Cliometrica, Volume 18, pages 493–529 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-023-00273-0.
With Yang Cai & Shengmin Sun

In unified growth models, a key to achieving sustained economic growth is the evolving nexus between population dynamics and technological change. This paper uses genealogical records of 23,449 males and their spouses to investigate this interplay—the intergenerational transmission of reproduction and human capital—within six Chinese lineages from 1300 to 1920. Examining the relationship between reproduction and long-run reproductive success, the empirical results reveal an optimal level of reproduction, demonstrating a strong Darwinian trade-off: high reproduction in each generation did not consistently lead to long-term reproductive success. Further analysis of the mechanisms reveals a Beckerian trade-off, illustrating the costs of excessive reproduction through contrasting outcomes in sons’ quality: having more brothers had minimal impact on marriageability but negatively affected human capital. Together, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of micro-demographic dynamics in pre-modern China and the persistence of Malthusian constraints.
Revise and resubmit to the Journal of Economic Growth

Transitioning from limited to open access societies drives economic development. This paper provides empirical evidence into this institutional transformation by investigating early and high-Tang China (618–906). Based on a dataset comprising 1,261 marriages from 618 to 755, we find that the rise to power of Empress Wu—the first and only female emperor in Chinese history—in 674 resulted in a positive effect on upward mobility. Men from common and poor clans who entered marriage after 674 were more likely to wed into elite clans and consequently became lineage elites. This surge in inter-class marriages primarily triggered by Empress Wu’s expansion of national civil examinations to strengthen her legitimacy, which increased the likelihood of men from common and poor clans succeeding in the exams. These knowledge elites leveraged their academic accomplishments to marry daughters from elite clans, leading to the convergence of lineage elites and knowledge elites.
With Shuo Chen, Shouying Liu, & Zhenxiang Wu
SSRN Working Paper No.4863648.

A project under the “Gender Norms in Asia: New Insights into Cross-Country Differences” initiative led by Prof. Bishnu Gupta and Prof. Kyoji Fukao